2009 Pro Football Thrills and Chills
By Glenn Guzzo
Here’s a brief summary of the highlights and lowlights of Strat-O-Matic’s new football ratings:
ARIZONA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Kurt Warner’s can shred any D Flat and Short, helped by strong OL pass blocking
Oh No! Though Cardinals improved run game with rookie Beanie Wells, the OL didn’t get the memo … Though WR Larry Fitzgerald still catches with the best, his LP yards are unimpressive
Defense:
Oh Yeah! 6s at NT (Dockett), LCB (Rodgers-Cromartie), SS (Wilson), no 0s
Oh No! You make the call: Short Pass 3Men where the only straight incompletion is at roll #5, or Long Pass 0Men – perhaps the worst such column ever, with auto Long Gains at rolls 3,4,5,11,12
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Ben Graham’s punting, Neil Rackers’ FG kicking, LaRod Stephens-Howling’s KR TD
Oh No! Cardinal penalties on 12 of 36 chances means a lot of plays called back
ATLANTA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! FB/HB Jason Snelling’s running takes the sting out of HB Michael Turner’s decline, giving ATL a two-back attack
Oh No! Stats that would’ve made QB Matt Ryan All-Pro in the ‘50s make him just OK now … Falcon RB’s have lost their mojo running wide
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Good to Excellent run D
Oh No! No 6s, three 0s (including both CBs)
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! K Matt Bryant’s 14 touchback chances; +5 penalties
Oh No! Bryant’s leg is stronger than it is accurate, with bad misses on FG and XP
BALTIMORE
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Fumble-free, foot-loose runner Ray Rice great SP receiver, too … Backup HB McGahee would be #1 elsewhere
Oh No! Rookie RT Michael Oher needed on the blind side: He’s he only 5 pass blocker on OL
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Ravens still tough with Good run D, Good to Excellent pass D
Oh No! A 0 and three 4s in the secondary will get burned on LP card
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Nothing better than +17 on kickoff coverage (after short kicks)
Oh No! -4 penalties, blocked punt, missed XP, LG on punt coverage
BUFFALO
Offense:
Oh Yeah! HB Frank Jackson among the most consistent Right-Wrong gainers … Closest to an automatic TD in the set: Terrell Owens’ +98 in LP
Oh No! See what a bad OL can do to an offense (e.g. both OTs are 0 run blockers) … Run, Ryan, run: QB Fitzpatrick Must Runs more often, better his completions
Defense:
Oh Yeah! If run D can hold, high-INT pass D can get the ball back
Oh No! No fumbles in 4-3 defense’s 0LB run zones … Both DE are 0
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Solid in almost all areas
Oh No! -4 penalties
CAROLINA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Stop-us-if-you-can run game: RBs Stewart, Williams can pound and breakaway in LB, OT and ER, with powerful OL blocking, too … Blink- and-he’s-gone WR Steve Smith
Oh No! QB Jake Delhomme’s auto INT on LP roll #10 — Wrong
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Good to Excellent pass D good enough to use Short Pass 3Men most often
Oh No! You, too, can feel the pain of the injured DTs: Just look at the run D cards
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! John Kasay’s strong FG kicking, kickoffs
Oh No! Everything else: -4 penalties, LG on both kick coverage teams, boring return men, a blocked punt and missed XP
CHICAGO
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Bears don’t fumble … Boom-or-bust QB Cutler can fling it deep
Oh No! Both OTs are 0 run blockers (the LG, too) … If you use backup QB Hanie you can save time – just go straight to the INT chart
Defense:
Oh Yeah! RLB Lance Briggs is a 6 again; Bears force fumbles
Oh No! Without Urlacher, monsters are scarce on the Midway: Four 0s and Poor pass D
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! TDs on both KR and PR
Oh No! Once-greatest Devin Hester is no longer a threat
CINCINNATI
Offense:
Oh Yeah! RB Cedric Benson will consistently break tackles … C Kyle Cook, LT Andrew Whitworth are 5-run blockers, 7-pass blockers
Oh No! Obvious options – RB Benson or WR Ochocinco – make smart play-calling essential
Defense:
Oh Yeah! 6s at both corners (Johnathan Joseph, Leon Hall)
Oh No! Bengals force very few fumbles … If FS leaves LP zone, expect unseasonably hot temperatures in secondary
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! #2 KR Bernard Scott’s TD on roll #3
Oh No! Missed XP, shaky punt coverage
CLEVELAND
Offense:
Oh Yeah! RB Jerome Harrison has 18 chances of SG or better ER wrong
Oh No! No need to complicate play-calling with Flat Passes with Derek Anderson at QB … WRs specialize in drops
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Two double-digit sackers in LOLB Wimbley, LILB Bowens
Oh No! “Poor” Run D is Short Gain City
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Josh Cribbs takes kickoffs (#3), punts to the house … Excellent kick coverage … Phil Dawson tops on FGs inside 50 yds
Oh No! Missed XP on #11 (not that it will be needed often)
DALLAS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Explosive RB Felix Jones (LG on #10W ER), WR Miles Austin (reminds of Bob Hayes yardage) … Run blocking: three 6s, three 5s
Oh No! Nothing serious, but 63% Romo just OK for Flat Pass and pass blocking can be beaten when he throws deeper
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Good to Excellent run D only because of player ratings: NT Ratliff’s 6, pair of 5 Des … Overall D: four 6s, five 5s
Oh No! This “Average” pass D worst for ‘Boys in a long time … Run or pass, too few turnovers
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Patrick Crayton’s PR TD on #3 … Pat McBriar’s punting … 14 KO touchback chances
Oh No! FG kicking bad enough to cause losses
DENVER
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Brandon Marshall’s big plays in LP
Oh No! RB fumbles: 2-6, 11, 12 right
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Four 6s (two LB, two DB), no 0s
Oh No! 3-4 D has SG at #7 in all runs for 0LB columns
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Eddie Royal TDs on KR, PR
Oh No! LGs on both KR, PR coverage
DETROIT
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Lions don’t fumble … WR Calvin Johnson will make big plays if …
Oh No! … INT-prone QB Stafford can get him the ball
Defense:
Oh Yeah! “Very Poor” pass D has no auto completes in LP 1Man … Three 5s, four 0s is huge improvement over winless ’08 team
Oh No! SP 3Men has LG at #4, only solid incomplete at #12
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Everything except kickoffs, coverage very solid
Oh No! LG on kickoff coverage
GREEN BAY
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Time to give QB Aaron Rodgers his due: With ordinary run game, worse OL, he’s elite
Oh No! Only oft-injured LT Clifton is much help on OL
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Very high INTs … With a LB in right run zone, this 3-4 “Excellent” run D will shine … Three 6s in secondary
Oh No! Serious LG trouble with SP 3Men (#4), LP 0Men (everywhere)
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! No LG on either kick coverage
Oh No! Blocked punt, missed XP, short kickoffs, lots of penalties
HOUSTON
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Matt Schaub nearly perfect Flat, deadly Long … Both OT are 7-pass blockers … WR Andre Johnson can explode Flat, Short and Long
Oh No! With this low-voltage run game, Schaub will have to shine guessed Right
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Three 6s, three 5s on improving D
Oh No! Too few INTs, too many run yards
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! No. 2 KR Jacoby Jones: TD on #3 … Elite punt coverage
Oh No! Kris Brown’s erratic FG kicking will force many tough decisions
INDIANAPOLIS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Peyton Manning deadly at every range, with big-time pass blocking help (four 7s) and four strong receivers
Oh No! Though fumble-free, RBs barely get enough Wrong to keep Ds honest
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Twin 6s at DE (Freeney, Mathis also double-digit pass rushers)
Oh No! Others much worse, but too few turnovers, too many yards
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Chad Simpson’s KR TD, Matt Stover’s reliable FGs inside 50 yds
Oh No! Ugly punt returns by Colts, ugly KO coverage
JACKSONVILLE
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Hyphen alert! Impressive RB Maurice Jones-Drew gets tough yards and breakaways … Big plays for rookie Mike Sims-Walker
Oh No! Low-completion, good-yardage QB Garrard will shine or frustrate … With rookie OTs, no 5 or 6 run blockers on OL and only one 5 pass blocker
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Is there a spin doctor in the house? Well, there’s more 5s (three) than 0s (two)
Oh No! Jaguar-ugly describes a D that doesn’t takeaway, doesn’t sack, but gives up gobs of yards (esp. the LG at roll #4 in SP 3Men)
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Elite punt coverage
Oh No! Josh Scobee’s FG 23-32 yd line: 2-6,12 (but he’s same 33-37 yd line)
KANSAS CITY
Offense:
Oh Yeah! RB Jamaal Charles is nothing inside or Right, but he runs wild Wrong OT (19 chances SG or better) and ER (LG on #9, +47 on #4)
Oh No! Go left, young man: 0 run blockers at RT, RG
Defense:
Oh Yeah! ROLB Tamba Hali’s blitzing: (5*) 12
Oh No! Poor vs. run, Poor vs. pass is a compliment to this hemorrhaging run D
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Excellent PK Ryan Succop … Jamaal Charles’ KR TD … +3 penalties
Oh No! Blocked punt, LG on KO coverage
MIAMI
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Two tough-to-tackle, fumble-free RBs in Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown … Promising QB Chad Henne … 7/6 LT Jake Long
Oh No! At least 14 drops SP Wrong for all receivers
Defense:
Oh Yeah! OLB blitzing: Joey Porter (3*)12, Jason Taylor 11
Oh No! No 6s, three 0s
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Ted Ginn’s KR TD … P Brandon Fields, FG kicker Dan Carpenter
Oh No! A missed XP is as bad as it gets on fundamentally sound team
MINNESOTA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Brett Favre (with dangerous WRs Rice, Harvin) + Adrian Peterson (with strong run blocking) will keep defenses guessing.
Oh No! Peterson’s fumbles: 2-6 Right
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Excellent run D boasts three 6s and a 5 on DL, forces fumbles
Oh No! With maybe the worst Short Pass D card ever, Viking coach may never guess Run. In SP 3Men, every roll that could be blank is a catch.
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Percy Harvin’s KR TD, FG kicker Ryan Longwell, +4 penalties
Oh No! LG on punt coverage, short kickoffs
NEW ENGLAND
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Passing with QB Brady, three 7-pass blockers, star WRs Randy Moss, Wes Welker
Oh No! Only nit-picks about getting tough yards running in short yardage situations
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Two 6s on DL; (4*)12 sacking OLB Tully Banta-Cain
Oh No! 3-4 defense very vulnerable OT and on Short Pass; starting DL helpless in pass rush (a 0 and two 1s)
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! +3 penalty advantage
Oh No! Blocked punt
NEW ORLEANS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Record-setting QB Brees has better Right columns than most QBs Wrong (and he’s got three big-play WRs, plus three 7-pass blockers) … RB Pierre Thomas can dominate Wrong
Oh No! RB fumbles: 2-7 Right
Defense:
Oh Yeah! High turnover-D makes Saints Good vs. run and pass
Oh No! Yards available on the ground and throwing deep
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Courtney Roby’s KR TD
Oh No! PK Garrett Hartley (XP miss on 11)
NEW YORK GIANTS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Eli Manning rivals Peyton … OL still has three 6-run blockers
Oh No! RB Brandon Jacobs’ yardage dive is suicidal
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Make it Oh OK! — Run-card yardage not as bad as feared with weak DL, LB player ratings
Oh No! It’s been the late ‘60s since Giants’ D this bad – no 6s, four 0s, LG on #4 Short Pass 3Men, SG on #7 LB 0Men
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Domenik Hixon’s PR TD on #3
Oh No! Short punts and LG on coverage
NEW YORK JETS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Dominant run game with HB Thomas Jones, change-of-pace backs and up to six 6-rated run blockers
Oh No! Rookie QB Sanchez can’t rescue team if running fails
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Excellent vs. run, Good to Excellent vs. pass
Oh No! Must blitz to bother QBs; two 0s taint top defense
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! No. 2 KR Brad Smith’s TD at #3
Oh No! Long Gain on KR coverage
OAKLAND
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Very worthy runner Michael Bush (SG or better: 10 chances LB, 9 chances OT, 11 chances ER) is HB/FB, allowing a second runner
Oh No! Very poor OL, weak WRs and QB JaMarcus Russell – fuggetaboutit
Defense:
Oh Yeah! ROLB blitzer Trevor Scott: (5*)12, 6s Richard Seymour, Nnamdi Asomugha
Oh No! Poor run D includes ER with SG at #4 and #7
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Greatest P Shane Lechler: Still +50 at #9, +41 at #11 … Greatest FG kicker Sebastian Janikowski: at least 2-10 inside 50 yds, 2-7 from 50-61 yds
Oh No! Astonishing -7 penalty disadvantage; terrible KR coverage
PHILADELPHIA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Electric WR DeSean Jackson’s big plays Right and Wrong in every range
Oh No! Power outage among RBs who can’t get tough yards
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Good to Excellent vs. run, high INTs vs. pass
Oh No! 0s at MLB, DLE
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! DeSean Jackson’s #3 PR TD
Oh No! Missed XP on #11; -3 penalties
PITTSBURGH
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Roethlisberger, receivers Holmes, Ward, Wallace, and Miller make formidable passing attack
Oh No! Weak OL will make everything tougher
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Excellent run D can stifle; two 6s, four 5s in front seven … LB pass rush: (6*)12, 6, 10 and (1*)12
Oh No! Without Polamalu, pass D is Poor (two 0s in secondary)
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Whew! LG only on 12 after yielding 4 TDs on kickoffs
Oh No! Short kickoffs + LG on coverage = poor
SAN DIEGO
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Philip Rivers is a force Short and Long, esp. with explosive WRs Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd and TE Antonio Gates
Oh No! It’s sad to see what’s become of RB LaDainian Tomlinson
Defense:
Oh Yeah! 6-rated LILB Stephen Cooper and five 5s
Oh No! Low takeaways and uninspiring D cards
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Darren Sproles’ PR TD
Oh No! Long Gains on both KR, PR coverage
SAN FRANCISCO
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Studly RB Frank Gore gets tough yards as well as any and more breakaways than most (e.g. OT: +80 at #2, LG at #4)
Oh No! 0-run blockers at both RG, RT (no wonder why SF went for OL high in draft)
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Strong coverage on Pass D cards; two 6s and a 5 on 3-man DL
Oh No! Way too many yards Off Tackle with LB help in 3-4
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Andy Lee’s punting
Oh No! Maybe the worst kick-returning in the set
SEATTLE
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Matt Hasselbeck effective Flat and Long, RBs rarely fumble
Oh No! OL decimated by injuries: Three 0s, three 4s for run block
Defense:
Oh Yeah! 5-rated LB Leroy Hill the best of a mediocre lot
Oh No! No fear of theft charges against this low-takeaway D
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Olindo Mare’s FGs inside 50 yds
Oh No! Very poor punt coverage
ST. LOUIS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Fumble-free RB Steven Jackson can do it all (e.g. 15 chances of SG or better ER Wrong)
Oh No! Weak OL, WRs will make decent-looking QB Marc Bulger uglier
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Few completes in LP 1Man with 5-rated FS Otogwe
Oh No! Brutal ER in Poor run D; both DTs are 0s
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Josh Brown: 2-7 for 50-55 yd FGs
Oh No! -4 penalties, LG on kickoff coverage
TAMPA BAY
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Fumble-free RBs and QB who can run, throw deep
Oh No! INT-prone rookie QB Josh Freeman makes passing risky
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Three 5s in the secondary
Oh No! Low fumbles and SGs at #7 across the board with 0LB make run D Poor
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! No. 2 PR, KR go for TDs at #3 … Without TD, No. 1 Clifton Smith gets good yardage … excellent KR coverage … PK Connor Barth is 2-6 on FGs 50-54 yds
Oh No! -4 penalties
TENNESSEE
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Except for fumbles (2-7,11,12 Right), HB Chris Johnson will go down as one of greatest SOM cards ever, with 16 chances +22 or better ER Wrong, +85 or better LB, OT and ER … Both OT are 7/6 blockers
Oh No! In Music City, passer Vince Young still looking for some touch
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Two 6s, four 5s
Oh No! Very Poor pass D is helpless with 3Men in SP and 0Men in LP … also very poor takeways vs. run and pass
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! PK Rob Bironas and P Brett Kern
Oh No! Very weak return men; LG on KR coverage
WASHINGTON
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Jason Campbell’s nearly perfect Flat Pass; low-fumble RBs
Oh No! 0/0 blockers at RG, RT, another 0 run-blocker at LT
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Tag-team sackers RE Andre Carter (12), LOLB Brian Orakpo (7*)12
Oh No! Fumbles caused by defense: Zip, nada, zero
Special teams:
Oh Yeah! Superb return coverage on both KR, PR
Oh No! Missed XP on 11 and 12
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