2021 NFL Thrills and Chills, Part I
By Glenn Guzzo
Here’s a brief summary of the highlights and lowlights of Strat-O-Matic’s new football ratings:
ARIZONA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! 15-TD RB Conner tough to keep out of the EZ running LB/OT, keeping defenses
honest for QB Murray throwing to max-catch WR Hopkins, 3 others w/LGs
Oh No! Three run-block 0’s, two 4s on starting front 6.
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Good run D (six 5s) forces fumbles … 3*-rushing OLBs Jones, Golden
… FS Baker (65)
Oh No! Bring a crystal ball with your dice if you are calling the defense: Poor pass D
must blitz to support wimpy rush from 3-man front, but also need extra man in
both SP and LP zones – or else!
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Thunder Foot punter Lee: 50 yds on #8; PK Prater good 2-7,12 on 62yd FG
Oh No! XP miss; weak KO returns
ATLANTA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! TE Pitts’ 2-tmd catches … 6 run blockers at C, RG
Oh No! QB Ryan’s decline to be just a middle-of-the-pack passer
Defense:
Oh Yeah! 6-rated LCB Terrell
Oh No! What pass rush? Most teams have one man with a higher rating than this front
three combined and no LB is higher than 5.
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Koo’s FG: 2-10 thru 49 yds; 2-6, 12 thru 54
Oh No! Blocked punt; LG on KO coverage
CAROLINA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! WR Moore has the hands and legs for big plays
Oh No! QBs Darnold, Newton, Walker: The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight …
RBs Abdullah, Hubbard, McCaffrey: The Gang That Couldn’t Run Far
(especially behind an OL with 0s at both guards, LT)
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Quality at every level in LE Burns (a 6 with 11 pass rush), 7* LLB Reddick,
RLB Thompson (65), SS Chinn (55)
Oh No! Scarce takeaways
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Gonzalez’ FG 2-10 thru 49 yds, 2-6 thru 57; +8/4/6 punt coverage
Oh No! Blocked punt; XP miss 11-12; +37/35/40 KO coverage
CHICAGO
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Run block 5s at both guards and LT, but —
Oh No! Poor pass blocking (2, 2, 3, 3, 5 on OL) only makes things worse for this pass
“offense.” In NFC Central alone, you’d rather have Rodgers or Cousins passing
Right than Fields/Dalton Wrong. In all the NFL, you’d rather have most any
receiving corps.
Defense:
Oh Yeah! QB-eating monster Quinn (12*12 at ROLB), leads ferocious LB pass-rushing
w/Gipson (1*), Smith (9 pass rush, 64 rating)
Oh No! Only the offenses catch the ball in this Average-to-Poor pass D.
Poor run D w/no 6s or 5s gives up SGs at #7 w/0 LB, seldom forces fumbles
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Grant PR TD on #3; O’Donnel 72-yd punt
Oh No! XP miss; FG good only 2-3 for 50+ yds
DALLAS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Prescott’s SP: 16 completions Right, 27 Wrong. On team w/WRs Cooper,
Lamb, Gallup, the best FP/SP receiver is TE Schultz …
RG Martin, LT Smith both 7,6; RT Collins 5,6
Oh No! Only HB Pollard can make ‘em miss on YAC.
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Parsons (5 w/4* rush) can pick his man to dominate as LLB or DE.
More strength from 6-rated DLE Lawrence, All-Pro RCB Diggs
Oh No! Proof of Global Warming: Wildfires on LP 0 Men w/possible LGs 2-5, 8-9, 11 …
MLB Neal (00), LT Odighizuwa (0)
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Pollard KR TD … Punt game: Anger’s deep kicks, +6/3/4 coverage
Oh No! XP miss 11-12 … Kickoffs: Shallow kicks, +31/29/38 coverage
DETROIT
Offense:
Oh Yeah! WR St. Brown’s max FP/SP catches … pass block 7s at both OT
Oh No! Keep it simple: QB Goff, receivers make it tough to throw deep, but 3 have max
FP catches.
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Pass-rushing OLBs Harris (1*), Bryant (8)
Oh No! Front 3’s pass rush rates of 1, 2 and 1? Seriously? Bring OLBs Harris and
Bryant or stick to 3-man rush with 8 in coverage in Very Poor pass D
with no 6s or 5s and three 0s at LB … Then there’s the Poor run D w/a 0 at NT.
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Fox’ huge punting leg (70 on #2, 50 on #8)
Oh No! XP miss
GREEN BAY
Offense:
Oh Yeah! If you thought anyone else should have been MVP, QB Rodgers’ Thirty SP
completions and seventeen LP completions Wrong should convince you.
With WR Adams’ 2-tmd catches and four LG receivers to boot.
Oh No! Two 0s and a 4 for interior OL run blocking
Defense:
Oh Yeah! NT Clark (6), LILB Campbell (66), SS Amos (56) …
OLBs Gary, Smith are twin 11s for sacks
Oh No! DRE Keke (0 with 2 pass rush), RILB Barnes (00 with 3 pass rush)
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Bojorquez 82-yd punt (and a 60 at #3)
Oh No! Take a knee: 27 longest run back for #1 KR; poor KR, PR coverage;
Crosby’s shaky FG from 30-49 yds
LOS ANGELES – NFC
Offense:
Oh Yeah! All-Pro WR Kupp: Max catches, 2-tmd catches and big-time LP gains.
But defenses beware WR Jefferson on the other side and his 25 LG chances.
They’ll get the ball: QB Stafford: 24 SP and 15 LP completions Wrong with the
pass blocking (two 7s, two 5s) to support downfield passing.
Oh No! Despite minimum fumbles, sub-par RBs
Defense:
Oh Yeah! The Man – RE Donald, a 6 w/1* sack rating – gets pass rush help from OLBs
Miller, Floyd (both 1*) and run help from LE Robinson (6), NT Gaines (5),
LOLB Miller (6), SS Fuller (6) … 6-rated LCB Ramsey
Oh No! No fumbles
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Powell PR TD; great KR, PR coverage …
The only non-automatic Rams penalty is on #11
Oh No! XP miss (a nit-pick for this team’s strong special teams)
MINNESOTA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Vikes can run w/Cook (55 chances of SG or better, including SG right at #8), pass
with Cousins, catch w/Jefferson (max and 2-tmd catches plus 22 LG chances)
Oh No! No run block 6s, only one 5
Defense:
Oh Yeah! SS Smith (66), MLB Kendricks (65) and a pair of 5s at DT
Oh No! A pair of 0s at DE, no pass rusher w/double-figure sack rating, scarce takeaways
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Nwangu’s KR TD on #4!
Oh No! LG on PR; blocked punt; XP miss on 11-12
NEW ORLEANS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! LG chances for WRs Harris (25), Callaway (22) … RT Ramczyk (5,6)
Oh No! Despite that, the end of the Brees era shows at QB and receiver. RB Kamara
misses him, too. The OL is in decline also: Guards are pass block 3s, run block
has four 4s and a 0 in front six.
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Good to Excellent run D with two 6s, four 5s in front seven and Good pass D with
two 6s – RCB Lattimore, FS Williams … The Saints who march in: pass-rushing
LE Jordan (1*), RE Davenport (10) have the jazz
Oh No! 0-rated LCB Adebo spoils the look of the team D lineup card
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Good punting, good KR, PR coverage
Oh No! XP miss on 9-10 (yikes!)
NEW YORK GIANTS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! 7 pass blocker Thomas at LT and four 5s on rest of OL, but —
Oh No! No run block 6s or 5s … No WR or TE with a LP gain longer than 42?
We don’t see that often – thankfully.
Defense:
Oh Yeah! RCB Jackson (6) and a pair of 5s at DE on 3-man line
Oh No! Average to Poor vs. Run and Pass with scarce takeaways …
A 0 at NT and no 6s or 5s for any of the eight ratings for the four starting LBs
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Gano superb FG: Good 2-10 thru 49 yds, 2-7, 12 thru 55;
very good kick coverage
Oh No! Take a knee: Longest runback 26 yds for #1 KR
PHILADELPHIA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! RB Sanders’ 55 chances of SG or better leading a powerful run game w/6-rated
run blockers at both OT, C … C Kelce and RT Johnson both 7,6
Oh No! Backup Minshew out-throws potent running QB Hurts
Defense:
Oh Yeah! LCB Slay (6)
Oh No! No fumbles; few INTs in Poor pass D
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Generally solid all-around, except —
Oh No! Poor KR, PR coverage
SAN FRANCISCO
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Dual threat Samuel (32 LG catch chances and YAC-A, 33 SG-plus run chances); HB Mitchell 53 chances of SG+ … Samuel and TE Kittle 2-tmd catches …
All-Pro LT Williams, FB Juszczyk both 7,6 blockers
Oh No! It’s no contest: QB Garoppolo over Lance. Is that a good thing? …
0 pass block LG Brunskill
Defense:
Oh Yeah! LE Bosa 6 w/8* pass rush … MLB Warner (66), FS Ward (56), twin 5s at DT
Oh No! Poor pass D especially over the top vs cover men (0 RCB Norman and
two 4s at LCB, SS)… LLB Harris (00)
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! PR coverage +9/8/3
Oh No! XP miss 11-12 … Kickoffs: Shallow kicks, LG on coverage;
If the roll is not #2, terrible KR returns
SEATTLE
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Down year? Wilson still hits 26 SP and 15 LP completions Wrong. With RB
Penny (36 chances of SG or better) and WRs Lockett (28 LG chances), Metcalf
(2-tmd and max SP catches), Wilson and his offense can be lethal if —
Oh No! The pass blocking holds up – 2s at C, RG, no 7s
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Good run D stuffs on rolls 6-8 and features 6-rated LT Woods and
6s at LLB, MLB.
Oh No! Poor pass D can’t pick-‘em. No fumbles on run D, either.
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Homer KR TD; excellent KR, PR coverage
Oh No! XP miss on 11
TAMPA BAY
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Age is just these numbers for QB Brady: 24 SP and 15 LP completions Wrong.
Max-catch receivers Gronkowski (FP/SP), Evans (SP/LP), Godwin (FP) and
Brown (FP) dare D’s to try double-teams. Even then, Evans makes catches.
Fearless passing with four 7s in pass blocking
Oh No! Only part-time WR Brown has LGs
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Stingy yards, higher fumbles in best-in-set Excellent run D …
FS Winfield (66) and three 5s in secondary … LILB David (65)
Oh No! Live ammo for the offenses’ QBs: The only blanks are at #3 for SP 3Men and #11
for LP 0 Men. LOLB Barrett (11) the only starter with a sack rating higher than 5.
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Punt coverage: +8/7/3
Oh No! XP miss on 11; KO coverage: +39/36/41
WASHINGTON
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Max LP catches for WR McLaurin; 6 run blocking at TE, RG, C
Oh No! RBs too lame to force Ds to guess Run; that will shut down these QBs.
Defense:
Oh Yeah! 6s at RCB (Fuller), both DE (Young, Sweat)
Oh No! No blanks in SP 3Men and only on #12 in LP 0 Men (all LGs). And all three LB
are 0s vs. the pass. Yes, Class – this is a Very Poor pass D … Leaks in the
supposed impenetrable DL: LE Young can stuff the run but not sack;
RT Allen has an 11 pass-rush rating, but an 0-le’ run rating.
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Carter KR TD
Oh No! Blocked punt, XP miss on 10-11
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