2016 NFL Thrills and Chills, Part I
Here’s a brief summary of the highlights and lowlights of Strat-O-Matic’s new football ratings:
ARIZONA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Explosive dual-threat HB David Johnson … 107-catch WR Fitzgerald has 2-tmd catches … QB Palmer goes deep with help from pass blockers (a 7 and three 5s)
Oh No! QB Palmer’s INTs Right … Foes can ignore all but Johnson, Fitzgerald
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Excellent run D with short yardage, strong fumbles; both OLB are * pass rushers … LE Campbell, LCB Peterson and LILB Bucannon (coverage) are all 6s
Oh No! 0s at RCB, RLB
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! +4 penalty advantage … FG good 2-6 from 60 yds
Oh No! LG on KO coverage
ATLANTA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! MVP Ryan can make any offense go: He’s better Right than most QBs are Wrong … And he has help: A minimum-turnover offense with SE Jone: max catches, 2-tmd catches and 34 chances of LG or better … HBs Freeman (LG and +75 on ER) and Coleman can hurt you Wrong with help from three 6-rated run blockers, esp. C Mack (7,6)
Oh No! RG Chester’s 2 pass block
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Sack leader Beasley’s 12*5 rating (and 56 base rating)
Oh No! Falcons will need all that offense: Very Poor vs. pass = no blank results on SP 3Men; foes won’t hesitate to run against these D cards, either
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! PK Bryant: 2-7 FG from 59 yds … P Bosher: still 42 yds on #10
Oh No! Nothing annoying
CAROLINA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Deep-threat TE Olsen has max catches FP/SP and 2-tmd catches … LG Norwell (7,6)
Oh No! QB Newton’s ho-hum pass and run cards
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Stars: LT Short (6 with 7 pass rush); MLB Kuechly (66), RLB Davis (65); LLB Thompson (55) completes brick LB wall in Good to Excellent run D
Oh No! Average to Poor pass D
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Best KO coverage: +10, +11, +12 … FG good 2-6 from 54 yds
Oh No! XP misses on 11, 12; FG misses on 8-9 inside 40 … LG on punt coverage
CHICAGO
Offense:
Oh Yeah! HB Howard debuts with 33 chances SG or better … both guards are 7 pass blockers
Oh No! At QB, the Three Bears: You can choose Baby Bear (Hoyer) with low INTs, but only FP success, Papa Bear (Cutler) with LPs with high INTs (Cutler) or Mama Bear (Barkley) with a high SP complete rate but frightening INT frequency … OLT Leno’s 0 run block
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Pass rush from OLBs Young 12*1, Floyd 11 … LILB Freeman (65)
Oh No! Poor vs. run: no fumbles and SGs across the board at #7; Average to Poor vs. pass: Though the team cards are clean, 0 pass coverage at LCB, SS, ROLB
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! PR TD
Oh No! LG on punt coverage; weak-leg PK Barth
DALLAS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! HB Elliott and fellow rookie QB Prescott create tremendous pressure on defenses to be Right. Even then, that OL again – LT Smith (7,6), RG Martin (7,6), C Frederick (5,6) – and HB Elliott can impose their will on the ground Right
Oh No! RT Free, LG Leary are 3 pass blockers
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Excellent run D forces fumbles … RLB Lee (65), three 5s in secondary
Oh No! Very Poor pass D (despite the 5s) shows on team cards (e.g. no blanks on SP 3Men with completes on #4, 5, 6 with 4Men and almost no INTs) … 0 DRT Collins; no pass rushers above 7
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! 25 deep kickoffs; PK Bailey: perfect XP, FG 2-6 good from 56 yds
Oh No! The Cowboy tradition of weak KO returns
DETROIT
Offense:
Oh Yeah! WR Tate: max FP catches and YAC-A; +67, 66 and 61 in LP … Minimum RB fumbles and new LT Taylor (7,5)
Oh No! Weak run game gets no help from 0 run block at LG, TE
Defense:
Oh Yeah!
Oh No! Now we know why Lions needed all those comeback wins. Pass rush: three 0s, three 3s on starting front seven; 0 base grade for MLB, DLT … Very Poor pass D (LG at #4 on SP, rate INTs); Average to Poor run D (no fumbles)
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! PR TD on #3 … P Martin (50 yds at #7) and punt coverage (+2, +4, +5) …
FG good 2-7, 12 at 58 yds
Oh No! XP miss on #11
GREEN BAY
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Rogers, the most complete QB: High completes/low INTs at all pass depths, 19 chances of SG or better ER Wrong, 15 MR chances of +11 or better … A 6 and three 5 run blockers; two 7 pass blockers (RG Lang is 7,6) … WR Nelson: max SP/LP catches w/2-tmd catches, too
Oh No! LG Taylor (3,0) … Run game won’t get yards Right (but maybe it won’t have to)
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Safeties Burnett, Clinton-Dix both 56; LOLB Perry: 13*3 pass rush, 6 run D
Oh No! Very Poor pass D has 0s at both CB, LOLB, RILB and LG at #4 on SP 3Men … Clay Mathews’ decline (44, pass rush 7)
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! XP miss on #11; long FGs good only 2-4
Oh No! KO coverage: +36, +32, LG
LOS ANGELES
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Minimum RB fumbles … WR Britt’s long gains
Oh No! With a card like this for HB Gurley, you just know Strat players are going to start calling him Girlie … Wasted rookie year for No. 1 pick QB Goff … No help from the OL, with 0 run blockers at C, RG, TE; no 7s and one 5 pass blocker
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Stud LT Donald (6 with team-best 9 pass rush); five other 5s
Oh No! Very Poor pass D has rare INTs and three starters with 0 pass rush, including 04 LLB Forrest
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! GREAT kick coverage … If LA can score a TD, the XP is 2-12 …
P Hekker: 50 yds at #7
Oh No! -5 penalty chance differential
MINNESOTA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Bradford: Minimum INTs and deadly FP/SP accuracy … C Berger (7,5), LG Boone (7,4) can protect.
Oh No! Pass-first offense will have to be pass-second and pass-third with this phantom run game … Vikes have to play careful game with OTs Sirles (4,2), Clemmings (4,3)
Defense:
Oh Yeah! 6s at RE, RCB, FS; sub DE Hunter’s 12*1 pass rush … Run D will force fumbles
Oh No! OLBs Barr, Greenway both 0 in coverage with little pass rush to offer … generous run D yardage
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! PR TD (on #3) and KR TD
Oh No! Maybe scoring a TD is not such a good idea: XP misses on #9, 10 … KO coverage: +33, +32, LG
NEW ORLEANS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Brees dares you to guess Run … HB Ingram: +75 and LG OT Wrong … WR Cooks: +98, +87 and seven LG chances LP Wrong … Rookie WR Thomas will be the TD maker with max SP catches … 7 pass blockers at C, RG, RT … minimum RB fumbles
Oh No! Ex-road-grading RG Evans now a 0 run blocker
Defense:
Oh Yeah! RE Jordan (6 with team-best 8 pass rush)
Oh No! Very Poor pass D has secondary with a 0, three 4s; two LBs are 0 in coverage
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Very poor KO returns
Oh No! PK Lutz: good FGs 2-10 to 49 yds, 2-6 to 57 yds; 26 deep kickoffs …
P Morstead: 50 yds at #7
NEW YORK GIANTS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! WR Beckham: max catches (and 2-tmd catches) at every distance with +75, +66 and LG on 11 chances LP Wrong … 7 pass blockers at C, RG, RT (and three 5s elsewhere)
Oh No! QB Manning INT-prone Right … 0 run blockers at RG, TE
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Newcomers Harrison (LT-6), Vernon (RE-6, team-best 9 pass rush), Jenkins (RCB-6) propel D with two other secondary 6s and a LE-5 … Good to Excellent vs. run relies mostly on individual ratings
Oh No! Unfortified LBs can’t stuff or sack and two of them are 0s in coverage … No blanks in LP 0Men; 7 completion chances with 1Man
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! 28 deep kickoff chances
Oh No! -6 penalty-chance differential (worst in set) … XP misses on #10, 11 … Good FG at 50+ yds only 2-3
PHILADELPHIA
Offense:
Oh Yeah! HB Mathews ER Wrong: 17 chances SG or better … minimum RB fumbles and LT Peters (7,6), RG Brooks (7,5) and solid 5-6 run blocking from RT thru LT
Oh No! Blankety-blank QB Wentz – too many incompletes Right and Wrong … C Kelce slumps to pass block 2
Defense:
Oh Yeah! RT Cox (6 with team-best 8 pass rush), RE Graham (6 with 7 pass rush)
Oh No! Average to Poor pass D has 0s at both CB and in coverage at RLB … generous yardage on team Run D cards
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Fab KO returns (TD on #11 for #2 man Smallwood, big gains for #1 man Barner) … 29 deep kickoffs and excellent KO coverage … FG god 2-6, 12 at 55 yds
Oh No! LG on punt coverage
SAN FRANCISCO
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Kaepernick may have to run for his life, but he might survive with his ER Wrong (24 chances SG or better) and Must Run (+30, +20 and still +12 at roll 6) … Chunky yardage for TE McDonald
Oh No! Strong breeze can topple this OL, with 0 run block at RG, RT, pass block of 3-2-2-4 at LG, C, RG, RT (only LT Staley respectable at 5,5) … Worst fumbles in the set
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Sacking LBs: 11 (LOLB Brooks), 8, 8, 6
Oh No! A defense that plays on all fours: 10 starters rated 4 … It’s Poor vs. run, Very Poor vs. pass … Ole run D has SG at #7 and #8 for LB, OT w/0 LB and 2-11 chance for +15 at #4 OT
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! 26 deep kickoffs and KO coverage: +13, +16, +12
Oh No! Cowardly PR; short-yardage KO returns
SEATTLE
Offense:
Oh Yeah! WR Baldwin: max catches FP/SP w/YAC-B … WR Lockett: 22 chances of LG or better across card … HB Prosise catches like a WR … Minimum RB fumbles … C Britt (7,5)
Oh No! Bad ankle wipes out Wilson as run threat … Run block: No 6s, one 5, four 0s (BB, LT, RG, RT) … HBs don’t make up the difference – not enough run game to support Wilson’s strong Wrong passing
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Strength of the team are its individual D ratings with MLB Wagner (66) and 6s for LE Bennett, LCB Sherman, FS Thomas and four 5s to support them.
Oh No! Seahawks among worst at forcing turnovers … LLB Marsh (00)
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Strong kick coverage
Oh No! blocked punt … XP misses on #10, 11, 12
TAMPA BAY
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Minimum RB fumbles and RG Marpet (7,6), RT Dotson (7,5) … QB Winston’s big plays … WR Evans has max LP catches and 2-tmd catches
Oh No! QB Winston’s INTs … 0 run block at LG, 2 pass block at LT
Defense:
Oh Yeah! LT McCoy (6 with team-best 9 pass rush), LCB Grimes (6)
Oh No! Rookie RCB Hargreaves (0); poor run-tackling LBs (two 0s, one 4)
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Punt coverage: +1, 2, 3
Oh No! Long drives needed: Not a single return man can go more than 26 yds … And they better end in TDs: Aguayo FGs good only 2-6 from 40-49 yds, 2-3 from 50+
WASHINGTON
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Cousins: 15 LP completes Wrong … deep-threat WR DeSean “Gone” Jackson: max LP catches include +80, +67, +57 and LG at roll #7 … TE Reed has 2-tmd catches … 7,6 blockers: LT Williams, RG Scherff; 7,5 for RT Moses … 3rd-down HB Thompson’s FP and run Wrong columns
Oh No!
Defense:
Oh Yeah! RCB Norman (6), ROLB Kerrigan’s 12*2 pass rush
Oh No! Average to Poor for both run, pass … few forced fumbles and generous yards vs. run … NT Hood (0) and not-so-safe safeties Whitner (04), Ihenacho (40)
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! PR TD … Solid punt coverage … FG good 2-6 from 54 yds
Oh No! XP miss on #11, 12 … LG on KO coverage
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