2019 NFL Thrills and Chills, Part I

By Glenn Guzzo

Here’s a brief summary of the highlights and lowlights of Strat-O-Matic’s new football ratings:

ARIZONA

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        Fitzgerald still the best receiver on the team … QB Murray’s versatility and RB Drake’s explosiveness refresh the Cardinals attack … minimum RB fumbles

Oh No!            Fitzgerald still the best receiver on the team … 0 run blockers from LG to RT

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        ROLB Jones’ (12*) pass rush

Oh No!            John McEnroe SP D – “You CAN’T be serious!” There IS no defense vs. SP – worse w/4Men than other teams with 3Men … This Very Poor pass D has low INTs, no blanks in SP w/3Men and two 0s in the secondary

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        Lee’s booming punts (still 50 yds on #7), Gonzalez’ sure-footed placekicking

Oh No!            Blocked punt … LG on punt returns

ATLANTA

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        Powerful receiver group w/WR Jones (max+2-tmd catches), WR Ridley,

TE Hooper, RB Freeman … 7 pass blockers at C, LT … QB Ryan Wrong: 25 SP, 13 LP chances

Oh No!            Snap-Crackle-No Pop RBs won’t discourage Pass D calls and Ryan has high picks Right

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        DRT Jarrett: 6 v run, 8 rush

Oh No!            Only Jarrett and extra LBs can save this run D … Poor pass D w/five 0s in the back seven

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        Barner PR TD … Koo’s FG: 2-9 up to 49 yds, 2-6 to 55 yds

Oh No!            Blocked punt, XP miss on 11

CAROLINA

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        Do-it-all RB McCaffrey w/+84, +76, +58 runs, great FP/SP … WR Moore one notch below max catches at all ranges

Oh No!            No Cam do: With Newton non-factor, QB Allen not nearly good enough

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        Asterisk rushers at both OLB … 66 MLB Keuchly, 60 FS Boston

Oh No!            long gain-heavy LP w/0Men

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        FG good 2-7, 11, 12 to 55 yds

Oh No!            XP misses on 10,11 … lg on punt coverage

CHICAGO

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        98-catch WR Robinson lacks LG, but nothing else

Oh No!            The pass offense is Robinson and … whomever you can trade for .. Both tackles are 0 run blockers (the other three on OL are 4s)

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        6-rated FS Jackson, two 5s in the secondary … Good run D only if defenders (a 6 and three 5s in front seven) come through. ROLB Mack is the 6 and an asterisk rusher

Oh No!            The run yardage and few fumbles when the defenders don’t solve the problem

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        KOR TD, +71 PR, 75-yd punt

Oh No!            Blocked punt, XP miss on 11

DALLAS

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        5 receivers with LGs and five possession receivers can stress any D … This Prescott card looks like he’s worth the contract … Both OT,and RG are 5,6 blockers. Center Frederick is 5,6

Oh No!            RBs Elliott, Pollard will do fine, but lack home-run clout

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        LE Lawrence (6) and RE Quinn (asterisk rusher)

Oh No!            Bend, don’t break: Few takeaways

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        Forbath FG: 2-6, 11, 12 to 63 yds

Oh No!            Best KOR strategy: Take a knee. Best PR strategy: Fair Catch. The lamest return guys in the set have a better chance to fumble than make a good return. Blocked punt, too.

DETROIT

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        Scary-good downfield threat Goladay has max SP, LP plus 2-tmd catches … QB Stafford: 24 SP complete chances, 14 LP

Oh No!            Yawn-worth RBs behind a yaw-worthy OL

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        Three 5s in the secondary

Oh No!            May as well guess Pass every play: Why would the other guy do anything else? Contender for worst pass D cards ever: Scarce INTs, no blanks in SP 3 Men w/LG at #4, only one blank with 4 Men – and a long gain-rich LP

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        Agnew TDs on both KOR, PR … +1/4/3 punt coverage … Prater FG: 2-7, 12 from 56 yards

Oh No!            long gain on KOR coverage

GREEN BAY

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        Both OT are 7,6 blockers … We’ve seen better Rodgers cards, but not many better in this set … What’s not to like about 16-TD RB Aaron Jones? He has SGs Right, LGs Wrong and can go deep for +67 and LG as a receiver, too … WR Adams: Max catches at every depth … Check the yardage on sleeper WRs Kumerow and Valdes-Scantling

Oh No!            All that and you want to worry? OK, there’s RG Turner’s 2 pass block

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        The pass-rushing Smith “brothers” will have offenses coughing, maybe choking: ROLB Za’Darius (8*) and LOLB Preston (6*) … FIVE 5s in the secondary

Oh No!            NEVER bring your FS up until the Red Zone – if you do, you’ll be there a lot with a LP 0 Men card that is LG on EVERY possible roll.

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        Crosby FGs: 2-9,12 up to 49 yds

Oh No!            That 13-yard punt sure looks special

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        Three 7 pass blockers (both OT) … QB Goff’s 14 LP completes Wrong … minimum RB, QB/TE fumbles

Oh No!            Who is that guy with Todd Gurley’s name on his run card? … Goff’s accuracy issues on FP/LP … freakish RT Havenstein (7 pass block, 0 run block)

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        THREE asterisk rushers, two run-defending 6s, two coverage 6s

Oh No!            Twin Short Gains at #7, 8 OT w/0 LB … Only RILB Littleton (64) avoided 0s in coverage among four starting LBs

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        Zuerlein: 33 deep KO chances, perfect XP, 2-6, 12 FG to 58 yds

Oh No!            blocked punt and +42/39/35 KOR coverage …

MINNESOTA

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        QB Cousins: 26 SP complete chances, 14 LP …  Sweet cards for sticky-handed WRs Diggs, Thielen … 7 pass block at both OT .. But if the D guesses Pass, RB Cook can hurt them plenty (he’s a force on FP, too)

Oh No!            Pass block issues at C, LG

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        Good to Excellent run D: Foes will have to take care on ER with a 2-6 fumble on #6 with 0 LB in zone … 66 MLB Kendricks, 6s at both safeties, and (5*) pass-rushing LE Hunter

Oh No!            Target practice at RLB, RCB with their 0 pass D

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        Very solid KOR, PR coverage

Oh No!            Missed XP on 11, 12

NEW ORLEANS

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        Always on-target QB Brees has 149-catch WR Thomas: Max (natch) and 2-tmd catches at every depth … Cook goes deep much better than most TE’s … 7,6 Ramczyk at RT, 7,5 and LT and C

Oh No!            0 run block at LG

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        Excellent run D contains yards at #7, 8, features LD Jordan (6 with 5* rush), 66 RLB Davis, 65 FS Williams, 46 SS Bell … Add 6 RCB Lattimore

Oh No!            Poor pass D has 0 LCB, weak pass rush up the middle

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        PR TD … +7/4/3 punt coverage … Lutz FGs and deep KO’s

Oh No!            -4 penalty differential … long gain on KOR coverage

NEW YORK GIANTS

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        Love me some RB Barkley, who punishes defenders Right, waves bye-bye Wrong and goes deep for LPs … WR Slayton’s max LP catches … 7 pass block RG Zeitler

Oh No!            0 run blockers at both OT, LG … Thrill is gone for Eli’s passing card, but it’s still better than QB heir Jones

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        All 5s in 3-man front, (5*) rushing LOLB Golden

Oh No!            Very Poor pass D features 0s at both CB, three of four LBs … Twin Short Gains at #7, 8 OT w/0 LB

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        +1/5/3 PR coverage, solid KOR coverage and good return men

Oh No!            blocked punt, missed XP on 11, 12 … FG good only 2-4, 11, 12 from 23-32 yd lines

PHILADELPHIA

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        RB Sanders explodes running, receiving …. WR Jackson’s max LP catches … Go with the 2-TE offense for Ertz, Goedert’s FP/LP receiving … 7,6 blockers at C, RG; three 6s, two 5s for interior OL run block

Oh No!            Probably the weakest WR squad in the set for FP/LP catches … Jackson has the only LGs on the team

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        LT Cox – 6 on fumble-forcing D that’s very good preventing yards, too

Oh No!            0s at both CB  … 6 starters have at least one 0 … no double-digit rushers

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        +4 penalty differential

Oh No!            long gain on KOR coverage; missed XP on 11

SAN FRANCISCO

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        Kittle is THE TE – 6 run block, max FP/SP catches, good LP card, 2-tmd catches … backup RB Mostert could start for anyone with his 52 chances for SG or better and his pass-catching … Jusczyk: a 7,6 blocking FB who is a deep-catch threat!

Oh No!            QB Garoppolo will win some, lose some behind some shaky pass blocking

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        Good run D (fumble-forcing force) and Good pass D (limits catches) … 7 starters with a 6 include three DL (and a 5), two coverage LBs (and a 5), LCB Sherman, 56 FS Ward … Asterisk rusher Armstead leads three double-digit sackers

Oh No!            The OLBs are 0s in run support

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        +4 penalty differential

Oh No!            only 2-3 chance for 50+ FG

SEATTLE

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        Always-reliable QB Wilson now has a run game w/Carson’s 32 chances of SG or better and two max LP recivers (Lockett, Metcalf_

Oh No!            LT Brown is pass block 7, but 2s and 3s everywhere else … No ER for Wilson

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        Fumble-forcing machine (at least 2-7 on #6 rolls w/0 LB) … 66 MLB Wagner

Oh No!            Pass rush ratings: 4-3-1-4-0-5-5

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        +10/11/12 KOR coverage

Oh No!            With this return group, pray that foes kick into the end zone … -4 penalty differential … Missed XP on 11, 12

TAMPA BAY

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        Big-play QB Winston and WRs Evans, Goodwin. Evans, with max SP/LP and 2-tmd catches, is among the most explosive in the set

Oh No!            Can Winston get Bucs into EZ before he throws an INT?

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        Supreme run D does it all – stuffs the runners, forces fumbles … 66 LILB David … LOLB Barrett (46 with 12* sacks)

Oh No!            Very Poor pass D gives up the catches (no 5s or 6s in secondary) and the yards

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        Almost all KO’s will be touchbacks … FG is 2-6, 11,12 from 58 yds

Oh No!            Missed XP on 11, 12 … +41/37/31 KOR coverage

WASHINGTON

Offense:

Oh Yeah!        6-run block RG Scherff … RBs Peterson and Guice can help the miss-prone QBs to pass Wrong

Oh No!            Only two receivers better than 2-6 LP combos. Only two have LGs … Rookie WR McLaurin is only real downfield threat … Advanced Pass Block automatic sacks: 4-8

Defense:

Oh Yeah!        An 11 and two 9s rushing the passer … RCB Dunbar (6)

Oh No!            Poor run D is “Ole’” LB/OT … Average to Poor pass D looks average on LP, poor on SP (LG on #4)

Special Teams:

Oh Yeah!        KOR TD … Way’s punting (79, 63, still 50 yds on#8)

Oh No!            -4 penalty differential